GAMESADVANCED
Colonel Blotto
Split forces across fronts with no pure best move — win by being unpredictable.
How it works
- Split fixed troops across N fronts; more troops wins a front.
- Any predictable split gets countered — randomize the mix.
- Value fronts unevenly and force rivals to guess where.
Use → Campaigns, ad budgets, competitive bids.
Watch out → Committing the whole budget to the 'most important' front.
Try it → Allocate 100 ad dollars across 5 channels three random ways.
REDCAPE jobs → Act · Design
Free sources → Coursera M9 (Colonel Blotto)
Attach to a lattice — combines with
Different families, shared jobs. Disagreement between them is where insight lives.
LINEAR & NONLINEAR
Concavity & Diminishing Returns
Curved payoffs change optimal bets: diversify when concave, concentrate when convex.
SHARED JOBS: DESIGN · ACT
DECISIONSDecision Trees + Value of Information
Fold back probabilities; pay for information only if it changes the action.
SHARED JOBS: ACT · DESIGN
DIFFUSIONBass Diffusion (S-Curve)
Innovators plus imitators make the S-curve. Spend early on seeds, later on social proof.
SHARED JOB: DESIGN