Think in Models, Not in Stories.

One model is always wrong. A lattice of many — distributions, networks, diffusion, games, dynamics — turns raw data into judgment. Browse 33 of them, poke live simulations, or ask the Mentor what fits your data.

Explore 33 modelsAsk the Mentor →REDCAPE framework
33
MODELS
9
FAMILIES
REDCAPE
7 JOBS
FREE
ZEN MENTOR
LIVE • SCHELLING LABOpen →

happy 76% • avg. similar neighbors 49% • red ring = wants to move

DIFFUSION • SIR

Same math: flu + pop-star fever

How the library works

01

Ask or browse

Start from a decision or a curiosity — forecasting, pricing, segregation, epidemics. The library is organized by job, not by math.

02

Tour the lattice

Open any model card for the mechanism, the diagram, the misuse warnings, and a live sandbox. Then read its neighbors — wisdom lives between models.

03

Act hedged

Take 3–5 models to your problem, note where they disagree, and run the smallest test that could prove you wrong.

Seven jobs for models

Open the REDCAPE explorer →
R
Reason
E
Explain
D
Design
C
Communicate
A
Act
P
Predict
E
Explore
FREE ZEN MODEL • DATA SCIENCE ONLY

Stuck? Ask the Mentor.

  • → Explains any of the 33 models in plain words
  • → Reads your data description, researches, recommends a lattice
  • → Runs on a free OpenCode Zen model — your key never leaves the server
Start chatting →

“I have weekly sales and ad spend — what should I use?”

→ Bass for the launch curve, regression for spend response, bandits for budget splits. Three models, one hedged plan.

9 families, 33 models

Full library →
DISTRIBUTIONS • 3

Normal Distribution · Power Law / Long Tail · Poisson Arrivals

LINEAR • 3

Linear Regression · Concavity & Diminishing Returns · Categorical & Threshold Models

NETWORKS • 5

Schelling Segregation · Granovetter Threshold · Standing Ovation (Page–Miller) …

DIFFUSION • 4

SIR Contagion · Bass Diffusion (S-Curve) · Percolation / Tipping Points …

DYNAMICS • 4

Random Walk & Markets · Markov Chain · Polya Urn / Path Dependence …

GROWTH • 2

Exponential & Solow Growth · Capital Share (Piketty-style)

GAMES • 5

Prisoner's Dilemma + Cooperation · Colonel Blotto · Coordination & Culture …

LEARNING • 4

Replicator Dynamics (Fisher) · Diversity Prediction Theorem · Multi-Armed Bandit …

DECISIONS • 3

Central Limit & Six Sigma · Decision Trees + Value of Information · Spatial Choice & Aggregation

Start with these four

NETWORKS

Schelling Segregation

Mild individual preference for similar neighbors aggregates to stark city-wide segregation.

Use → Housing, schools, platforms. Try the tolerance sandbox below.

Core • Reason · Explain · Predict

Ask mentor →
DIFFUSION

SIR Contagion

Susceptible–Infected–Recovered with an R0 tipping point. Same math for flu and pop-star fever.

Use → Epidemics, memes, outages. Push R below 1 or segment the network.

Core • Predict · Act · Explore

Ask mentor →
DISTRIBUTIONS

Power Law / Long Tail

Rich-get-richer: a few huge winners, many tiny players. Straight line on log-log.

Use → City sizes, book sales, network degrees. Never average it like a normal.

Starter • Explain · Predict

Ask mentor →
LEARNING

Multi-Armed Bandit

Balance pulling the best-known lever against testing new ones. Regret is the score.

Use → Trials, dosing, ad creative. Run small experiments, then exploit.

Core • Act · Explore

Ask mentor →

Click any card — it opens as a modal with diagrams, explanations, and labs.

“To be wise you must arrange your experiences on a latticework of models.” — after Page

Disclaimer: original syntheses inspired by The Model Thinker — no pages or figures reproduced; every diagram is a recreation. Support the author: buy the book. Site + code MIT.