THE FRAMEWORK, REBUILT • SEVEN JOBS FOR MODELS
REDCAPE: put every model to work.
A model is not an answer — it is a tool with a job. Pick the job first, then the model. Click a letter to inspect it.
R • RUN THE LOGIC FORWARD
Reason
Deduce what must follow if a mechanism is true — and drag hidden assumptions into daylight.
ASK THESE THREE
- If this mechanism ran for a year, what exactly would we see?
- Which assumption is my conclusion secretly standing on?
- What single fact would break the whole chain?
SIGNATURE MODELS
Schelling: tolerant movers → segregated map. The pattern never proves the preference.
THE WISDOM LADDER
Data climbs only if models carry it.
01
Data →
raw observations
clicks, cases, prices
02
Information →
cleaned + compared
rates, ranks, gaps
03
Knowledge →
mechanisms that explain
SIR, thresholds, loops
04
Wisdom
many-model judgment + action
lattices, hedges, designs
Case files: combos that cracked hard problems
One crisis, three lenses
- Bandit: approve broadly vs trial narrowly — explore/exploit prescriptions.
- Markov: No Pain → User → Addict transitions plus long-run shares.
- Dynamics: tolerance, supply, and despair feedback loops.
Insight: No single lever works — a portfolio of small tests plus monitoring wins.