DYNAMICSCORE

Markov Chain

Next state depends only on now. Run it forward to get the long-run mix.

ABCpq
only today matters · recreated schematic

How it works

  • Tomorrow depends on today alone — older history is dead weight.
  • Multiply the transition matrix forward to roll the future.
  • Aperiodic + connected chains settle to one long-run mix.
Use → Mobility, churn, brand switching. Check memorylessness first.
Watch out → Forgetting the memoryless assumption when streaks actually matter.
Try it → Build a 3-state brand-switching matrix; iterate to the steady shares.
REDCAPE jobs → Predict · Act · Explore
Free sources → Coursera M5 (Markov Processes)
◍ Mentor soonSee REDCAPE playbook →

Attach to a lattice — combines with

Different families, shared jobs. Disagreement between them is where insight lives.

DIFFUSION
SIR Contagion
Susceptible–Infected–Recovered with an R0 tipping point. Same math for flu and pop-star fever.
SHARED JOBS: PREDICT · ACT · EXPLORE
LEARNING
Multi-Armed Bandit
Balance pulling the best-known lever against testing new ones. Regret is the score.
SHARED JOBS: ACT · EXPLORE
GROWTH
Capital Share (r > g)
When returns on capital outrun growth, wealth concentrates without any villain.
SHARED JOB: ACT

More in Dynamics

Random Walk & Markets
Unpredictable steps accumulate; efficient markets leave mostly randomness behind.
Polya Urn / Path Dependence
Early draws rewrite the odds — history locks in QWERTYs, VHSs and dominant cities.
Cellular Automata & Game of Life
Tiny local rules aggregate into gliders, blinkers and chaos. Emergence needs no boss.
← Random Walk & MarketsPolya Urn / Path Dependence →