Library / Diffusion / Bass Diffusion (S-Curve)
Bass Diffusion (S-Curve)
Innovators plus imitators make the S-curve. Spend early on seeds, later on social proof.
INTERACTIVE LAB
Tolerance sandbox (original recreation)
happy 76% • avg. similar neighbors 49% • red ring = wants to move
DIFFUSION
When to use / misuse
Use → Launches, rollouts, feature adoption.
Difficulty → Core
REDCAPE → Predict · Design
agent: bass-checker family: Diffusion combine_with: [two other families] rule: state failure mode before acting
Free sources: NetLogo Diffusion models
Attach to a lattice — combines with
Different families, shared jobs. Click to open alongside.
LEARNING
Diversity Prediction Theorem
Crowd error equals average error minus diversity. Diverse models beat the lone genius.
SHARED JOBS: PREDICT · DESIGN
DISTRIBUTIONSPoisson Arrivals
Counts of rare independent events per window: calls, mutations, clicks.
SHARED JOBS: PREDICT · DESIGN
LINEARCategorical & Threshold Models
Buckets and cutoffs turn messy attributes into testable if-then rules.
SHARED JOB: PREDICT
More in Diffusion
SIR Contagion
Susceptible–Infected–Recovered with an R0 tipping point. Same math for flu and pop-star fever.
Percolation / Tipping Points
Sparse links suddenly gel into a giant component — bank networks and blackouts tip fast.
Cellular Automata & Game of Life
Tiny local rules aggregate into gliders, blinkers and chaos. Emergence needs no boss.