Library / Learning / Diversity Prediction Theorem
Diversity Prediction Theorem
Crowd error equals average error minus diversity. Diverse models beat the lone genius.
INTERACTIVE LAB
Tolerance sandbox (original recreation)
happy 76% • avg. similar neighbors 49% • red ring = wants to move
LEARNING
When to use / misuse
Use → Ensembles, forecasting teams, model committees.
Difficulty → Core
REDCAPE → Predict · Design
agent: diversity-prediction-checker family: Learning combine_with: [two other families] rule: state failure mode before acting
Free sources: Coursera M11 (Prediction)
Attach to a lattice — combines with
Different families, shared jobs. Click to open alongside.
DIFFUSION
Bass Diffusion (S-Curve)
Innovators plus imitators make the S-curve. Spend early on seeds, later on social proof.
SHARED JOBS: PREDICT · DESIGN
DISTRIBUTIONSPoisson Arrivals
Counts of rare independent events per window: calls, mutations, clicks.
SHARED JOBS: PREDICT · DESIGN
LINEARCategorical & Threshold Models
Buckets and cutoffs turn messy attributes into testable if-then rules.
SHARED JOB: PREDICT
More in Learning
Replicator Dynamics (Fisher)
Winning strategies reproduce faster; adaptation speed rises with variation.
Multi-Armed Bandit
Balance pulling the best-known lever against testing new ones. Regret is the score.
System Dynamics / Feedback Loops
Stocks, flows and reinforcing loops turn small pushes into addiction spirals or virtuous cycles.