Library / Distributions / Poisson Arrivals
Poisson Arrivals
Counts of rare independent events per window: calls, mutations, clicks.
INTERACTIVE LAB
Tolerance sandbox (original recreation)
happy 76% • avg. similar neighbors 49% • red ring = wants to move
DISTRIBUTIONS
When to use / misuse
Use → Staffing, queues, buffers. Don't use when events cluster or cascade.
Difficulty → Core
REDCAPE → Predict · Design
agent: poisson-checker family: Distributions combine_with: [two other families] rule: state failure mode before acting
Free sources: OpenIntro Statistics
Attach to a lattice — combines with
Different families, shared jobs. Click to open alongside.
DIFFUSION
Bass Diffusion (S-Curve)
Innovators plus imitators make the S-curve. Spend early on seeds, later on social proof.
SHARED JOBS: PREDICT · DESIGN
LEARNINGDiversity Prediction Theorem
Crowd error equals average error minus diversity. Diverse models beat the lone genius.
SHARED JOBS: PREDICT · DESIGN
LINEARCategorical & Threshold Models
Buckets and cutoffs turn messy attributes into testable if-then rules.
SHARED JOB: PREDICT